Case file · Official inquiry
Aguadilla (CBP)
A US Customs & Border Protection thermal camera filmed an object over Puerto Rico.
2013 CE · 18.50, -67.13 · status: unexplained
The account
The footage shows an object apparently entering the sea and splitting; a scientific coalition (SCU) analysed it.
The researched reading
High-quality thermal video whose motion matches the wind. Lanterns are the strong favourite, and the ‘splitting into the sea’ is an effect of viewing angle.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Something known, misidentified | 40% | Wind analyses show the object’s track matches drift with the wind at that height, and its ‘splitting’ and ‘entering the sea’ fit two linked sky lanterns seen with parallax against water; a nearby resort reportedly released lanterns that night, and AARO reached the same conclusion. |
| Undetermined | 34% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 14% | The Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies argued for speeds lantern drift cannot explain, though later analysis, even within that group, moved toward lanterns. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 3% | Thermal reflections off water explain some of the apparent submersion effects. |
| Secret human technology | 3% | There is no sign of a test vehicle near a civil airport. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 2% | No unusual natural phenomenon is suggested. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 2% | Interpretation of the clip shaped the ‘trans-medium’ story more than witnesses did. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 2% | The footage is genuine government sensor video. |
Official position: AARO assessed the object as sky lanterns; the SCU’s 2015 report had called it unexplained.