The lost men of South Island, Lake Rudolf
In August 1934 two members of Vivian Fuchs's Lake Rudolf Rift Valley Expedition, the doctor and zoologist W. S. Dyson and the surveyor Martin, set out for South Island in Lake Turkana in a collapsible canoe and were never seen again.
1934 CE · 2.63, 36.60 · status: official
The account
Fuchs searched for more than eight days before the search was called off; what became of them was never established. The island was locally said to be a place from which people did not return, and the El Molo and other lakeside peoples told stories of it. Lake Turkana is notorious for sudden violent winds.
The sceptical view
The likeliest explanation is a capsized canoe in a storm, with crocodiles in the lake; nothing points to anything stranger.
The researched reading
A tragic loss on a dangerous lake. Storm, capsize and crocodiles are the likely story, and the “cursed island” is a legend that grew around it.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Undetermined | 42% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 40% | Two men in a frail collapsible canoe on Lake Turkana, which is known for sudden violent winds and steep waves and is home to large crocodiles, can be lost without trace. Searches with government help found nothing to suggest anything else. |
| A cultural story | 10% | The idea that South Island is a place of no return comes from lakeside lore and grew in retellings after the loss. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 3% | An unsolved disappearance leaves no evidence of anything strange; it is just unknown. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 2% | Not relevant to the loss itself. |
| Something in the surroundings | 2% | The harsh setting is covered under natural causes; nothing like gas or infrasound is suggested. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 1% | The loss is recorded by the expedition and the press. |
Official position: The expedition and colonial authorities searched without result; the men were presumed drowned.