Case file · Official inquiry
Mt Etna object (AARO)
A US drone's infrared camera filmed a round object that seemed to fly through the ash plume of erupting Mt Etna.
2018 CE · 37.40, 14.92 · status: explained
The account
The December 2018 video was captured near Naval Air Station Sigonella, Sicily, and was among the cases AARO presented to the Senate in November 2024.
The sceptical view
AARO concluded with moderate confidence that it was a balloon drifting with the wind, far from the plume, and with high confidence that it showed no anomalous behaviour.
The researched reading
An object that seemed to fly through a volcano’s plume was really far in front of it, drifting like a balloon.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Something known, misidentified | 82% | AARO showed through geometry that the object was far in front of the ash plume, not inside it, and moved with the wind; a balloon fits. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 5% | No anomalous behaviour remains once range is taken into account. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 4% | Volcanic ejecta can be hot in IR but does not hold a stable track. |
| Secret human technology | 4% | A small drone is an alternative to a balloon. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 3% | Parallax created the illusion of an object surviving the ash. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 1% | No unusual natural process is suggested. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 1% | The footage is genuine. |
Official position: AARO assessed it as probably a balloon, and with high confidence not anomalous.