Case file · Official inquiry
Police helicopter chase near St Athan
On 8 June 2008 a South Wales Police helicopter reported following an unidentified object near MOD St Athan, the Bristol Channel and Barry; there were other sightings around Cardiff.
2008 CE · 51.41, -3.44 · status: disputed
The account
The helicopter crew said the object moved towards them and then out over the Channel. The report was included in the MoD's later file releases.
The sceptical view
Lanterns and lights over the Channel are possible; no radar data was made public.
The researched reading
A police helicopter crew saw lights that matched a release of Chinese lanterns from a nearby wedding that night. Almost certainly lanterns.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Something known, misidentified | 50% | A wedding party in nearby Cowbridge released about thirty Chinese lanterns that night, and a guest said they drifted towards St Athan. The helicopter was hovering, not chasing, and lanterns over the Channel fit the reports. |
| Undetermined | 30% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 6% | Experienced crew reported an object that seemed to approach them, but no radar or video data were released. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 4% | Lights at night have no distance cues, so wind-driven drift looks like purposeful motion. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 3% | Bright stars or planets low over the Channel are possible for some ground sightings. |
| Secret human technology | 3% | An unannounced military drone near MOD St Athan is conceivable but unnecessary. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 2% | Nothing points that way. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 2% | The police report was genuine. |
Official position: South Wales Police reported the sighting to the MoD; press reports attributed it to wedding lanterns.