Kyle Polich's data analysis of Missing 411
A data scientist checked Paulides's cases against expected frequencies and found 'not a single case stands out'.
2017 CE · 36.60, -121.89 · status: official
The account
Kyle Polich, host of the Data Skeptic podcast, analysed the Missing 411 cases and presented the result at a 2017 SkeptiCamp of the Monterey County Skeptics. He confirmed that the cases are real and that Paulides had filed FOIA requests, but found no frequency or cluster beyond what chance and visitor numbers would predict. Supporters on Missing 411 forums have disputed parts of his framing. His work, with similar reviews by Susan Gerbic and others, is the main quantitative answer to the books.
The sceptical view
The key point is the missing denominator: the books do not count all the comparable cases that were solved quickly.
Connections in the atlas
- The 'Missing 411' book series
- 'Dead Men Walking': search and rescue in US national parks
- Skeptoid, 'Why You Needn't Worry About the Missing 411'
- David Paulides, author of 'Missing 411'
- The Missing 411 'profile points'
- 'Missing 411' and Yosemite