Case file · Anomaly hotspot
The training ship Admiral Karpfanger vanishes
The German sail training ship Admiral Karpfanger, homeward bound from Australia with 60 aboard, sent her last message on 12 March 1938 and was never seen again; she was presumed lost near Cape Horn.
1938 CE · -56.50, -67.00 · status: unexplained
The account
A door believed to come from the ship was later found on Navarino Island in Chile. Position approximate.
The sceptical view
Ice or storm in the waters around Cape Horn.
The researched reading
A training ship lost near Cape Horn, with wreckage later found. Storm or ice explains it.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A known natural phenomenon | 40% | A sailing ship rounding Cape Horn in March faces storms and drifting ice; a piece of a door and other wreckage believed to be hers were found near Navarino Island, and the German maritime court ruled the loss force majeure. |
| Undetermined | 34% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| Something known, misidentified | 10% | Seamanship errors by a crew of cadets, or rigging failure in a gale, are ordinary causes. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 5% | Its inclusion in “vanishing ships” lists frames an ordinary loss as a mystery. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 4% | Rogue waves are frequent off Cape Horn but are a known phenomenon. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 3% | The wreckage find and the waters explain the loss. |
| Secret human technology | 2% | No hostile action in 1938. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 2% | No fabrication involved. |
Official position: A German maritime court in 1939 found the ship a total loss through force majeure, cause unknown.