Case file · High strangeness
Disappearance of the Hawaii Clipper
On 28 July 1938 the Pan Am flying boat Hawaii Clipper vanished between Guam and Manila with 15 people aboard; no wreckage was ever found.
1938 CE · 12.40, 130.80 · status: unexplained
The account
The aircraft's last radio report placed it about halfway to Manila. Theories have included sabotage, a Japanese hijacking to seize the plane or the money aboard, and bad weather.
The sceptical view
Storms and mechanical failure over deep ocean explain many such losses; the hijacking theory lacks evidence.
The researched reading
A Pan Am flying boat lost between Guam and Manila. Weather or a sudden fire over deep ocean fits best; the hijacking theory is a story without proof.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A known natural phenomenon | 40% | The Martin M-130 was flying through weather near a typhoon area; a crash at sea in storm or turbulence over the deep western Pacific leaves little floating debris. An oil slick was found along the route. |
| A cultural story | 30% | The theory that Japanese agents hijacked the plane (possibly for its passenger with a large sum for the Chinese government) is popular in books but has no documentary support; it now drives the story more than the evidence. |
| Something in the surroundings | 8% | A fire or explosion aboard (fuel leak, electrical) could have downed it suddenly; the routine position report came minutes before contact was lost. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 7% | The absence of wreckage invites conspiracy reading; that is a gap in evidence, not evidence. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 6% | Claims that bodies were found or that the plane was taken to a Japanese island rest on unverified later stories. |
| Undetermined | 5% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 4% | A flying-boat loss over the open ocean needs no exotic cause. |
Official position: The Bureau of Air Commerce investigation could not determine the cause.