Case file · High strangeness
The Rosa Belle found capsized
In October 1921 the schooner Rosa Belle was found capsized on Lake Michigan with no trace of her crew; she had capsized once before, in 1875, and again no crew was found.
1921 CE · 43.00, -87.40 · status: unexplained
The sceptical view
The Coast Guard found no sign of collision; storms and a top-heavy load are the ordinary explanations.
The researched reading
An old schooner capsized in a Great Lakes gale. A storm explains it.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A known natural phenomenon | 40% | The House of David supply schooner, loaded with lumber, was found capsized and awash after an October gale; Lake Michigan storms capsize old schooners and drown crews, and her yawl was missing. |
| Undetermined | 29% | The share the reading had given to fabrication on doubt rather than evidence: the record does not settle it either way. |
| A cultural story | 14% | The Lake Michigan Triangle legend has drawn her into a pattern of mysteries. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 8% | A capsized boat with no crew is ordinary, but the empty hull invites mystery. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 5% | The claim that she capsized once before with no crew found looks like an unverified embellishment; some suspected a collision covered up. |
| Something in the surroundings | 2% | Not relevant. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 2% | A capsize in a gale explains it. |
Official position: No formal finding beyond loss in a gale; the wreck was towed ashore and abandoned.