Kyiv astronomers' 'cosmics and phantoms'
In August 2022 astronomers at Ukraine's Main Astronomical Observatory in Kyiv posted a preprint describing fast unidentified objects filmed over Kyiv with meteor cameras: bright 'cosmics' and dark 'phantoms' a few metres across, crossing the sky at kilometres per second.
2022 CE · 50.36, 30.50 · status: disputed
The account
The authors (B. Zhilyaev and colleagues) used two stations about 120 km apart to estimate distance and speed. The National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine criticised the work's methods, and other scientists suggested birds, insects, debris or artillery shells in wartime skies, with errors in distance estimates.
The sceptical view
Not peer-reviewed at the time; the distance and speed estimates are disputed.
The researched reading
Genuine camera data with a weak distance analysis. Without reliable distances, nearby birds, insects and wartime hardware explain the objects. The method deserves repeating with proper triangulation.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Something known, misidentified | 50% | The speeds depend entirely on distances derived from two stations. The observatory’s own council found serious errors in those distances, and analysts showed the “phantoms” resemble insects or birds close to the camera. If the objects are near, they are small and slow. |
| Secret human technology | 12% | Wartime Kyiv skies held drones, missiles, artillery and reconnaissance craft. Some fast or dark objects could be military hardware. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 12% | The data are real, and a systematic camera survey is the right method. If the distances were correct, the objects would be hard to explain. That is a substantial “if”, and no independent replication exists. |
| Undetermined | 12% | The share a generic explanation had beyond what has been shown for this case: it fits many cases like this one, but has not been demonstrated for this one. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 6% | Meteors, debris and atmospheric effects are routine for meteor cameras and may be among the “cosmics”. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 6% | Some bright flashes could be poorly understood luminous events, but nothing in the data requires this. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 1% | The data are instrumental, and the issue is interpretation, not perception. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 1% | There is no sign of fabrication; the problem is analysis. |
Official position: The Main Astronomical Observatory’s scientific council said the processing and interpretation were at an inappropriate scientific level, with significant distance errors.