Charles Moore's theodolite sighting
On 24 April 1949 balloon engineer Charles B. Moore and a Navy crew near Arrey, New Mexico, tracked a whitish ellipse through a theodolite for about a minute as it climbed away at enormous speed.
1949 CE · 32.85, -107.32 · status: disputed
The account
Moore, the General Mills engineer who also launched the Project Mogul balloons later tied to Roswell, was an expert observer, and the case was widely cited by early UFO investigators.
The sceptical view
Donald Menzel suggested a mirage or a balloon seen through unusual atmospheric conditions; no film or radar record survives.
The researched reading
A balloon expert tracked a fast-climbing ellipse with an instrument. Mirage, balloon or secret test could explain it, but none fits perfectly, so a real unknown remains possible.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Genuinely anomalous | 33% | An expert balloon engineer measured the object’s motion with a theodolite, and no balloon or aircraft fits its speed; the lack of film or radar limits the evidence. |
| Something known, misidentified | 25% | A balloon or other launched object, seen through a theodolite, could appear as a whitish ellipse; Moore was tracking a balloon himself at the time. |
| A known natural phenomenon | 15% | Menzel suggested a mirage or optical effect in unusual atmospheric conditions. |
| Secret human technology | 15% | Secret missile or balloon tests near White Sands could explain a fast-climbing object. |
| A poorly understood natural phenomenon | 5% | A rare optical phenomenon could create a fast-moving image. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 5% | Trained observers using instruments make perception errors less likely. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 2% | There is no sign of fabrication by Moore or the Navy crew. |
Official position: No official solution; Menzel proposed a mirage or balloon effect, and the case was widely cited by UFO investigators.