Case file · High strangeness
Peng Jiamu vanishes at Lop Nur
On 17 June 1980 the biochemist leading an expedition into the Lop Nur desert left a note saying he had gone to find water, and was never seen again.
1980 CE · 40.40, 90.90 · status: unexplained
The account
Huge searches failed. Remains found on six occasions in 2005–07 could not be proven to be his; rumours ranged from defection to aliens.
The researched reading
A scientist who went alone into a lethal desert in summer to find water. Death from heat and dehydration is by far the likeliest explanation.
| Explanation | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A known natural phenomenon | 40% | Peng walked alone into the Lop Nur desert in June, one of the hottest and driest places in Asia, to look for water; dehydration and heat would kill within a day, and shifting sand could bury a body quickly. |
| Undetermined | 37% | The share the reading had given to fabrication on doubt rather than evidence: the record does not settle it either way. |
| A cultural story | 8% | The Lop Nur’s reputation for nuclear tests and vanishings fed alien and conspiracy rumours. |
| A hoax or fabrication | 5% | Rumours that he defected or was killed for political reasons have no supporting evidence. |
| Perception, memory or mind | 5% | Heat exhaustion causes confusion, which would make a lone walker lose his bearings. |
| Something in the surroundings | 4% | Mirage and featureless salt crust confuse navigation in the Lop Nur. |
| Genuinely anomalous | 1% | Dying alone in that desert needs no special cause. |
Official position: Chinese authorities ran large searches and presumed him dead in the desert.